State of Fantasy

Remember that scene in The Shawshank Redemption when Andy, fully convinced of his innocence, asks a totally non-helpful prison warden how he could be so “obtuse.” It’s a riveting scene. Partly because I love seeing a scrub calling out the higher ups, and partly because I’m convinced the warden didn’t really know what obtuse actually meant, only that it was insulting his intelligence. And the point of that sentence is this: when the New South Wales Origin team was imminently announced, that scathing exchange between Andy and Warden Norton was one of the first things that came to mind.

How, oh how could selectors be so “obtuse”?

I gave up trying to analyse the political side sports six months ago when it become painfully obvious that I would have to wait twenty years for one of the senior writers to cark it — yes, I went there — in order for me to gain a promotion. Instead I turned my attention to my true love, fantasy sports.

Anyone actively involved in sports analysis knows that statistics can be deceiving. Within the industry we use a term called “Tim Duncan Syndrome” to highlight a player whose true contributions never show up statistically. For example, the fact that Eric Grothe Jr. is the 53^rd-ranked centre/wing in the Daily Telegraph’s Fantasy NRL simulation (averaging 32.25p/pr) will never define his true value to the Parramatta backline who all average more points than he. Ditto for Brisbane’s Ben Hannant, and Cronulla’s Brett Kearney. Some statistics tell you everything you need to know about a player. Others don’t. So believe me, even as I’m surrounded by numbers, I know you can’t fully trust them. Even still, you have to wonder…

1. Who Is Kicking Goals for the Blues?

The Blues starting line-up has combined for a total of 12 try/penalty conversions through nine rounds of football, from Mark Gasnier and Peter Wallace (Random note: feel free to update your website at any time NRL.com. Wallace has kicked 8 goals, not 0! Who’s mailing it in over there?) at a rather unflattering conversion rate. Assuming Gidley was the intended goal kicker prior to going down, why not call on Matt Orford (25 goals and big game experience) to fill the void? Is the Blues forward pack THAT much better than the Maroons that you can assure protection for Wallace? What if he goes down early? Does Fitzgibbon come on for the rest of the game? Did we think about this?

2. Why is Willie Mason starting ahead of Anthony Laffranchi?

This baffles me! Laffranchi (248.) has made 134 more tackles than Mason (114) and only missed four more. Four tackles! That could be another superfluous statistic, or it could be Cameron Smith breaking through the line en route to a game altering play. Who knows? Laffranchi has made 15 more hit-ups than Mason and draws triple coverage more than Mason. Statistically he obliterates Mason. I understood Crocker getting the nod for the Kangaroos and defended it in a recent column. Australia needed some mongrel…I get that. This I don’t. And yes, it would be so much easier to believe “experience” was the reason Mason got the nod, except that Brent Kite, Nathan Hindmarsh, Brett Finch and Braith Anasta were all hung out to dry. Which reminds me…

3. Did Kite and Hindmarsh die this week?

Here’s where you know your state and national selectors are on completely different pages. Hindmarsh represented Country, Kite represented the Kangaroos; neither made Origin? Were Hindmarsh’s 43 tackles and 5 hit-ups not enough? What about Kite’s 29-9? Age becomes a reason to dump a player when performance seeps. Should it matter otherwise?

4. Did our selectors choose this team or Queensland’s?

I actually stole that from a poster named ‘Walter the sane of Bondi’. Good question, Walter.

One more observation spurred on by a long-time reader…

Assuming you could chose between the chosen Origin squad:

1. Brett Stewart 2. Jarryd Hayne 3. Mark Gasnier 4. Matt Cooper 5. Anthony Quinn 6. Greg Bird 7. Peter Wallace 8. Brett White 9. Danny Buderus 10. Ben Cross 11. Ryan Hoffman 12. Willie Mason 13. Paul Gallen 14. Anthony Laffranchi 15. Anthony Tupou 16. Craig Fitzgibbon 17. Ben Hornby

…or a team made up of players who missed out on Origin:

1. Brett Hodgson 2. Eric Grothe Jr. 3. Jamie Lyon 4. Michael Monaghan 5. Hazem El Masri 6. Braith Anasta 7. Brett Finch 8. Brent Kite 9. Robbie Farah 10. Mark O’Meley 11. Nathan Hindmarsh 12. Andrew Ryan 13. Chris Heignington 14. Jason Ryles 15. Ray Cashmere 16. Feleti Mateo 17. Jarrod Mullen

…who would you chose? And shouldn’t we be worried that we can’t quickly and heartily agree on the first? Maybe statistics do tell us more than we know? Or maybe we just need to drink from the well of common sense a little more.

Oh well, at least the commercials will be watchable during the series.